Covid-19: an uncertain future for mortality

Our Covid-19 life expectancy research, updated for mortality over 2022.

The initial briefing note published in April 2022 set out four possible scenarios for how life expectancies may be impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, relative to pre-pandemic expectations. Our updated note explores mortality experience over 2022 and how this compared with those scenarios.

April 2022 briefing note information

Our research examines the potential effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on long-term mortality rates and how this in turn will influence trustee decision-making in the years ahead.

Various medical, economic and social factors will determine future mortality improvements and longevity risk. For instance, advancements in vaccine, greater public health awareness and a healthier lifestyle through home working may increase life expectancy rates. On the other hand, NHS backlogs, economic recession and further waves of Covid-19 may have a negative impact. 

Even before the pandemic struck there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the direction of future mortality improvements. What we’ve observed over the past two years has only exacerbated this.

Download our briefing note today to get a clear view of scenarios, in order to determine what each might mean for future mortality improvements and life expectancies.

If you would like to discuss this topic in more detail, please contact your usual Barnett Waddingham consultant or the authors below.